做跨境法税咨询这些年，有个感受越来越强烈——政策出台的节奏变了。以前是一年一个大文件，大家有充足时间消化；现在是多线并行，彼此咬合，留给企业的反应窗口越来越短。
2026年过半，梳理一下下半年值得重点追踪的几条政策线索。不是面面俱到的政策汇编，而是我们实际服务客户过程中，觉得真正会改变游戏规则的那几个方向。
一、增值税法正式落地，跨境电商首当其冲
2026年1月1日，《中华人民共和国增值税法》正式施行。这不是小修小补，而是增值税从"暂行条例"运行33年后，头一次升格为全国人大立法。税收法定原则在这个领域终于落地了。
对企业最直接的影响在哪？
跨境电商全面取消核定征收。2026年起所有跨境电商新业务不再适用核定征收，历史过渡期结束，全部企业必须规范建账，凭完整凭证核算收入、成本、费用。过去那种"按固定利润率做账"的模式，正式退出舞台。
平台数据直连税务。根据国务院令第810号《互联网平台企业涉税信息报送规定》（2025年6月施行），亚马逊、Temu、TikTok Shop等平台按季度向税务机关报送卖家收入数据。金税四期再叠加海关出口数据、银行收汇流水，形成"四流闭环"比对。2026年2月，浙江温州、广东深圳等多地数万卖家同步收到预警短信——申报收入低于平台报送金额，请限期核实更正。
出口退税36个月红线。出口货物自报关之日起36个月内必须完成退免税申报，逾期直接视同内销按13%补缴增值税，没有延期通道。对9810海外仓卖家冲击最大，库存周转周期长，很容易错过申报期限。
这几个变化叠加在一起，传递的信号很明确：跨境电商"野蛮生长"的时代结束了，合规不再是一道选择题。
二、离岸信托个税新规：从灰色地带到明码标价
2026年7月24日，财政部和国家税务总局联合发布《关于离岸信托个人所得税有关事项的公告》（2026年第21号），首次对离岸信托建立完整的个人所得税征管规则。
核心逻辑一句话概括：离岸信托生命周期中的每个关键节点，都是纳税时刻。
设立环节，资产装入信托视同转让，增值部分按20%征收；存续环节，信托收益无论是否分配，按年申报缴税；终止环节，居民转非居民视同清算，类似"弃籍税"。
杀伤力最大的是存续环节的"不分配也要交税"。过去离岸信托最大的吸引力就是收益留在信托里不分给个人，可以无限递延。21号公告把这条路堵死了。
市场机构不完全统计，头部富豪信托底层资产总规模超5000亿。CRS信息交换已覆盖140多个国家和地区，金税四期再交叉比对境内工商数据——海外账户的资金流水完全透明。现在的区别只是主动合规还是被动追缴。
三、ODI和37号文监管持续收紧
2026年7月29日，国家外汇管理局发布《关于深化跨境投融资外汇管理改革有关事宜的通知》（汇发〔2025〕43号），进一步强化跨境投融资的外汇管理。
对个人境外投资而言，37号文登记（汇发〔2014〕37号）仍然是境内居民通过特殊目的公司（SPV）开展境外投融资的唯一合规路径。2026年监管进一步强化"先登记、后运作"原则。
这里有个实操中经常被问到的问题：37号文登记的时间节点。37号文需在向SPV出资前完成登记，逾期后各地外管局实操中基本不受理补办。很多创始人习惯先搭好架构再"补办"登记，这条路走不通。SPV设立后30个工作日内未办理登记的，需提交逾期说明函；逾期超过180天的，需先接受行政处罚后方可补登。但实务中，各地外管局对逾期补登的受理标准日趋严格。
同时，2024年12月国家税务总局与外汇管理局联合发布的《关于个人境外投资所得涉税信息共享与征管协作的公告》（2024年第21号），建立了外汇登记信息与税务申报信息的共享机制。37号文备案仅解决外汇合规问题，境外投资所得仍需按个税法申报纳税。
四、CRS进入实质执法阶段，2.0版本已在路上
中国自2018年9月起正式接收CRS数据，截至2025年底已累计接收七轮年度数据，覆盖2017-2024年全部账户年度。
2025年是分水岭。湖北、山东、上海、浙江四省启动基于CRS历史数据的境外所得追征案件，CRS数据正式从"接收归档"迈入"交叉比对+稽查落地"阶段。公开案例显示，有纳税人被精准锁定未申报的境外股息收入，补缴个税及滞纳金近百万元。
更值得关注的是CRS 2.0。开曼群岛、BVI已于2026年1月1日正式实施CRS 2.0规则。CRS 2.0最关键的变化是废除了"打破平局规则"（tie-breaker规则）——双重税籍账户持有人的信息，必须同时向两个居民国的税务机关报送。过去依赖第二居民国身份掩盖对中国税务机关信息披露的操作，彻底失效。
2027年9月，首批法域将向中国传送2.0版数据。2026-2027年，是境外所得主动合规申报的最后关键窗口。
五、全球最低税：中国虽未立法，但已在射程之内
OECD/G20推动的支柱二（Pillar Two）全球最低税规则，要求合并收入达到7.5亿欧元门槛的跨国企业集团，在每个运营辖区承担不低于15%的有效税率。
截至2026年上半年，超过60个辖区已颁布或实施GloBE规则，包括欧盟全部成员国、英国、日本、韩国、新加坡。香港已于2025年1月1日正式实施。
中国内地尚未立法，但无法置身事外。最终母公司（UPE）在中国的集团，若中国辖区有效税率低于15%，自2026年起面临按低税支付规则（UTPR）在其他辖区被分摊征收补足税的风险。换句话说，你不立法，别的国家替你收。
2026年1月，OECD发布"并行系统方案"，引入四项安全港措施。过渡性国别报告安全港获准延长一年，覆盖至2027年底之前开始的财年。这对中资集团是利好，但窗口期有限。
致同国际商业评论的跨国企业调查显示，受影响企业预计有效税率平均将上升4.6%。传统利用开曼、BVI等低税区搭建的架构，节税价值大幅缩水。
六、几个判断
第一，2026年下半年的政策节奏不会放缓。增值税法的配套细则仍在持续出台，离岸信托21号公告的90天窗口期正在倒计时，CRS 2.0数据交换倒计时不到18个月——多条政策线同时进入实质执行阶段。
第二，监管的核心逻辑是"信息闭环"。平台数据直连、CRS信息交换、金税四期交叉比对——所有动作都在搭建一个让跨境资产"无处遁形"的技术基础设施。政策层面的变化只是激活了已有的数据能力。
第三，合规窗口在收窄。无论是离岸信托的90天主动申报期、出口退税的36个月红线，还是CRS 2.0落地前的最后合规窗口，留给企业的缓冲空间都在快速消失。
以上分析基于公开政策文件、官方公告及公开报道。每个企业面临的跨境架构、业务模式、税务身份不同，具体合规路径需要个案评估。
如果你所在的企业正在应对上述任何一个方向的合规压力，或者想提前评估自身架构的风险敞口，可以私信聊聊，帮你做个初步梳理。
English version（英文版）
After years of doing cross-border tax and legal advisory work, I feel something more and more acutely—the rhythm of policy has changed. In the past, one big document a year gave everyone plenty of time to digest it. Now, multiple tracks run in parallel and interlock, and the window for companies to react is getting shorter.
2026 is past its halfway mark. Here is a review of the policy lines worth tracking in the second half—not an exhaustive policy compilation, but the few directions that, in our actual client work, we think will truly change the game.
1. VAT Law Officially in Force—Cross-Border E-Commerce Bears the Brunt
On January 1, 2026, the Value-Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China officially took effect. This is not a minor patch—after 33 years of operating as a "provisional regulation," VAT has been elevated to legislation by the National People's Congress for the first time. The principle of statutory taxation has finally been realized in this area.
Where is the most direct impact on businesses?
Full abolition of deemed assessment for cross-border e-commerce. From 2026, all new cross-border e-commerce business is no longer eligible for deemed assessment; the historical transition period has ended, and every enterprise must keep proper accounts, recognizing revenue, costs, and expenses with full documentation. The old "fixed profit margin bookkeeping" model is officially off the stage.
Direct platform-to-tax data link. Under State Council Decree No. 810, the Regulations on the Reporting of Tax-Related Information by Internet Platform Enterprises (effective June 2025), platforms such as Amazon, Temu, and TikTok Shop report sellers' revenue data to the tax authority on a quarterly basis. Golden Tax Phase IV then overlays customs export data and bank remittance records, forming a "four-flow closed loop" for cross-checking. In February 2026, tens of thousands of sellers in Wenzhou (Zhejiang), Shenzhen (Guangdong), and elsewhere simultaneously received warning text messages—reported income was below the platform-reported amount, and they were asked to verify and correct within a deadline.
The 36-month red line for export rebates. Export goods must complete their tax-refund (or exemption) filing within 36 months from the date of customs declaration; missing the deadline means being treated as domestic sales and paying a 13% VAT make-up, with no extension channel. The hit is hardest on 9810 overseas-warehouse sellers, whose inventory turnaround is long and who easily miss the filing window.
These changes together send a clear signal: the era of "wild growth" in cross-border e-commerce is over. Compliance is no longer an option.
2. The Offshore Trust IIT Rules: From Gray Zone to Up-Front Pricing
On July 24, 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration jointly released the Announcement on Personal Income Tax Matters Concerning Offshore Trusts (Announcement No. 21 of 2026), establishing for the first time a complete individual income tax framework for offshore trusts.
The core logic in one sentence: every key node in the lifecycle of an offshore trust is a tax moment.
At the establishment phase, assets placed into the trust are treated as a transfer, with the appreciation taxed at 20%. At the holding phase, trust income—whether or not distributed—is declared and paid annually. At the termination phase, a resident becoming a non-resident is treated as a liquidation, similar to an "exit tax."
The most damaging piece is the "tax even if not distributed" rule in the holding phase. The biggest appeal of offshore trusts used to be that income left in the trust and not distributed to the individual could be deferred indefinitely. Announcement No. 21 closes that door.
Incomplete market statistics put the aggregate scale of the top families' trust underlying assets at over RMB 500 billion. CRS information exchange already covers more than 140 countries and regions, and Golden Tax Phase IV then cross-references domestic business-registration data—overseas account flows are fully transparent. The only difference now is proactive compliance versus being pursued.
3. ODI and SAFE Circular 37 Keep Tightening
On July 29, 2026, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued the Notice on Deepening Reform of Cross-Border Investment and Financing Foreign-Exchange Administration (Hui Fa [2025] No. 43), further strengthening foreign-exchange administration of cross-border investment and financing.
For individuals investing abroad, SAFE Circular 37 registration (Hui Fa [2014] No. 37) remains the only compliant path for domestic residents to conduct overseas investment and financing through special purpose vehicles (SPVs). In 2026, regulators have further strengthened the "register first, operate later" principle.
A question that comes up often in practice: the timing of SAFE Circular 37 registration. Registration must be completed before funding the SPV; in practice, local SAFE branches essentially refuse late filings. Many founders are used to setting up the structure first and "back-filing" later—that route no longer works. If the SPV has been set up for more than 30 business days without registration, a late-filing explanation letter must be submitted; for delays exceeding 180 days, an administrative penalty must be accepted before back-filing is allowed. In practice, however, local SAFE branches' standards for accepting back-filings are getting stricter.
At the same time, the Announcement on Information Sharing and Enforcement Cooperation Regarding Individual Overseas Investment Income (Announcement No. 21 of 2024), jointly released by the STA and SAFE in December 2024, established an information-sharing mechanism between foreign-exchange registration data and tax filing data. SAFE Circular 37 filing only addresses foreign-exchange compliance; overseas investment income still must be declared and paid under the IIT Law.
4. CRS Enters Real Enforcement, with Version 2.0 on the Way
China has formally received CRS data since September 2018. By the end of 2025, it had received seven rounds of annual data, covering all account years from 2017 to 2024.
2025 was the watershed. Hubei, Shandong, Shanghai, and Zhejiang launched back-tax-collection cases based on historical CRS data, and CRS data formally moved from "received and archived" to "cross-checked and audited on the ground." Public cases show taxpayers being precisely identified for undeclared overseas dividend income, with back IIT plus late-payment surcharges of nearly a million RMB.
More noteworthy is CRS 2.0. The Cayman Islands and the BVI have officially implemented CRS 2.0 rules since January 1, 2026. The most important change in CRS 2.0 is the abolition of the "tie-breaker rule"—for accounts held by dual tax residents, information must be reported simultaneously to both residents' tax authorities. The past practice of using a second residency to obscure disclosure to Chinese tax authorities has been rendered completely ineffective.
In September 2027, the first batch of jurisdictions will transmit 2.0 data to China. 2026–2027 is the last key window for proactive compliance on foreign-source income.
5. Global Minimum Tax: China Hasn't Legislated, but It's Already in the Crosshairs
The OECD/G20's Pillar Two global minimum tax rules require multinational enterprise groups with consolidated revenue of EUR 750 million or more to bear an effective tax rate of at least 15% in every operating jurisdiction.
As of H1 2026, more than 60 jurisdictions have enacted or implemented GloBE rules, including all EU member states, the UK, Japan, Korea, and Singapore. Hong Kong has formally implemented them since January 1, 2025.
Mainland China has not yet legislated, but it cannot stay out of it. For groups whose ultimate parent entity (UPE) is in China, if the effective tax rate in the China jurisdiction is below 15%, starting in 2026 they face the risk of top-up tax being allocated and collected in other jurisdictions under the Undertaxed Profits Rule (UTPR). In other words, if you do not legislate, other countries will collect for you.
In January 2026, the OECD released the "side-by-side system package," introducing four safe-harbor measures. The transitional country-by-country-report safe harbor has been extended by one year, covering fiscal years beginning before the end of 2027. This is good news for Chinese groups, but the window is limited.
A Grant Thornton International Business Review survey of multinationals shows that affected companies expect their effective tax rate to rise by 4.6% on average. The traditional architecture built on low-tax jurisdictions like the Cayman Islands and the BVI has seen its tax-saving value shrink significantly.
6. A Few Judgments
First, the pace of policy in H2 2026 will not slow down. Implementing rules for the VAT Law continue to be issued, the 90-day window under Announcement No. 21 for offshore trusts is ticking down, and the countdown to CRS 2.0 data exchange is less than 18 months away—multiple policy lines are entering substantive execution at the same time.
Second, the core logic of regulation is the "information closed loop." Direct platform-to-tax data link, CRS information exchange, and Golden Tax Phase IV cross-checks—every action is building a technical infrastructure that leaves cross-border assets nowhere to hide. The policy-level changes have merely activated data capabilities that already existed.
Third, the compliance window is narrowing. Whether it is the 90-day proactive filing window for offshore trusts, the 36-month red line for export rebates, or the final compliance window before CRS 2.0 lands, the buffer for companies is shrinking fast.
The above analysis is based on public policy documents, official announcements, and public reports. Each company's cross-border structure, business model, and tax status are different; the specific compliance path requires a case-by-case assessment.
If your company is dealing with compliance pressure in any of the directions above, or wants to assess the risk exposure of its own structure in advance, feel free to reach out for an initial review.